Making Sense of Complex Situations

­­­­This was initially posted on Linkedn.

 

Every day we all find ourselves immersed in situations, often not of our making. They might be local to our everyday activities, for example, a pipe bursts in the kitchen. Alternatively, they might be general affecting many people, such as Covid19. Irrespective, when a situation arises, we might ask such questions as:, do we do anything and, if so, what do we do? If we are to do something, then we must locate ourselves within this situation. But what is a situation, how do we make sense of it, then handle it? This short paper examines the concept of a situation, how we can make sense of a situation, particularly if complex, with uncertainty and turbulent, and then proposes a methodology for handling this situation.  

 

What is a situation? 

The OED has a number of definitions of the term ‘situation’. For example, those in current use include:

3a.   Place or position of things in relation to surroundings or to each other

3b.   A place or locality in which a person resides, or happens to be for the time

6a.   The position in life, or in relation to others, held or occupied by a person

8.    Position of a person with regard to circumstances.

9a.   Position of affairs; combination of circumstances.

9b.   A particular conjunction of circumstances (esp. one of a striking or exciting nature) under which the characters are presented in the course of a novel or play

They draw attention to the notion of something (e.g. person) positioned relative to something out there (e.g. place, life, surroundings, combination of circumstances). A situation exists out there relative to each of us, but whilst we might share the same situation (e.g. being on a crowded long-distance train), our respective perceptions of it can be quite different (e.g. camaraderie spirit, unpleasant experience). This is exacerbated by uncertainty about what is happening (e.g. delays, unmarked reserved seats) and turbulence (passengers boarding and leaving the train). To add, when we attempt to explain it, the situation expands to include other issues (e.g. busy route, ‘rush hour’, underinvestment, shareholder priorities, government policy…).  

 

This suggests that situations are dynamic configurations of all that is happening related to a perceived position within a context defined by those distinctions which have relevance, whether recognised or not by a single observer, but which, in their totality, constitute the wholeness of the situation. Thus, an analysis of a situation requires the requisite distinctions to be made to identify its relevant elements. This includes not only stakeholders but also relationships, resources, events, places, views, emotions, values and anything else that might be relevant. Moreover, effort will attempt to establish how each is related to the others, implying cause and effect (i.e. causality). However, there may be multiple sources for any effect, with it being difficult to pinpoint a specific cause, with some going unrecognised, whilst others are the subject of argument about their significance.

 

Moreover, there may be a feeling that there is something wrong (i.e. there is a problem) and that something needs to be done. However, it may be unclear what to do, with different views emerging about what is the problem and what should be done. Such situations have been described as wicked (Churchman 1967; Rittel and Webber 1973) or messy (Ackoff 1974). They are characterised by their complexity, uncertainty and turbulence over time (Harwood, 2020).

 

Depicting a situation as a rich picture

Mapping a situation as a dynamic configuration of many different types of elements, can reveal its confusing and cluttered nature – its mess. Nevertheless, this map can provide a ‘rich picture’ of the situation, the notion of a rich picture being introduced by Checkland (1972, 1981). The word ‘rich’ suggests that the picture provides an insight into the complexity of the situation. From a practical perspective, it is no more than a sketch that captures the different elements and how they might be related to each other. The emphasis is upon content rather than artistic skill, with rich pictures taking many forms. It will be based upon an understanding of the situation, which is likely to arise from the collection of data, ideally from different perspectives about what is happening. Given the prevalence of misinformation in today’s society,  the authority and authenticity off data sources ought to be established, making the distinction between what is factually valid and uninformed opinion, though the latter can be as relevant as the former. Complexity is defined as the number of perceived states (Espejo, 1988). Thus, the richness of a picture in revealing the complexity of the situation, will be enhanced by the distinctions made and its scope. However, again from a practical perspective, consideration should be given to the boundary of the situation, in terms of what is included and what is excluded. Nevertheless, this in itself is problematic since one view about what is relevant may be viewed by another as irrelevant. Whilst there may be the temptation to be very focused, this may omit issues that ought to be considered. On the other hand, trying to include everything creates the challenge of what to prioritise. 

An illustration of a rich picture is provided in figure 1 in the form of a snapshot from a cartoon. This offers an insight into the complexity of Universal Credit, a flagship project of the UK Government to reform welfare payments. This picture identifies many different stakeholders, viewpoints, experiences and venues. It is based upon a detailed study (Harwood, 2018b) that involved referring to many sources of many different types. It provides an overview of how the rollout of Universal Credit has been perceived. It enables each issue to be considered within context. I suggest that this rich picture allows us to position any decisions about what to do, with appreciation of how it might impact.

Figure 1: a sketch providing a rich picture of the UK Universal Credit reform as perceived in 2018.

 

Dealing with messy situations

The production of a rich picture is the first activity of the VIPLAN Methodology. This is a methodology that has been devised to handle complex situations that can be characterised as wicked or messy. It comprises six activities, which iteratively and collectively allow a messy situation to be handled, in a manner that leads to closure to a specified problem. However, the situation is still likely to be open to the need to deal with other specific problems.

 

The VIPLAN (Cybernetic) Methodology was developed and introduced by Raul Espejo in 1988, but has received limited attention, perhaps due to the obscurity of its publications as well as the absence of pragmatic guidelines as to how it can be used. However, one of the affordances of the methodology is that it supports systems thinking and, as such, can be used to respond to a call for ‘a holistic, systematic approach’ in the Bali Road Map, adopted at COP13 in December 2007. Sustainable development, particularly in the context of the SDGs,  is a good example of the need to handle complexity, in the effort to balance social, economic and environmental issues. In recognition of this, Harwood (2018) presented a paper arguing the appropriateness of the methodology for the handling of  Water-Energy-Food Nexus issues.  However, as with all past papers relating to this, it lacked practical guidance as to how the methodology could be used. In response, a subsequent paper has been published which provides a comprehensive overview of the methodology, including its development and application, as well as an explanation as to how it can be used. This paper can be accessed with the following link (Harwood 2020), with its abstract being presented below.

 

 

References

Ackoff RL (1974) Redesigning the Future. Wiley: New York

Checkland P (1972) Towards a systems-based methodology for real-world problem solving. Journal of systems Engineering, 3(2),87–116

Checkland P (1981) Systems Thinking, Systems Practice. Wiley: Chichester

Churchman CW (1967) Guest editorial, wicked problems. Management Science, 14(4), B141–B142

Espejo R (1988) Cybernetic methodology to study and design human activities. Dissertation for Doctor of Philosophy. The University of Aston in Birmingham

Harwood SA (2018) In search of a (WEF) nexus approach. Environ Sci Pol 83:79–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.01.020

Harwood SA (2018b) The Parrot is Not Dead, Just Resting: The UK Universal Credit System – an empirical narrative.  Working Paper, Series,  Business School, University of Edinburgh [ISBN: 978-1-9999205-5-5]. https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-parrot-is-not-dead-just-resting-the-uk-universal-credit-system--an-empirical-narrative(ac76e31e-e966-4a30-9e6e-1596d0ac5275).html

Harwood SA (2020) Introducing the VIPLAN Methodology (with VSM) for handling messy situations – nine lessons. Systemic Practice and Action Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11213-020-09545-6

Rittel HWJ, Webber MM (1973) Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences, 4, 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01405730